Mellor on the Chances of Effects :: Philosophy Philosophical Essays

Mellor on the Chances of Effects* ABSTRACT: In the Facts of Causation (1995), D.H. Mellor includes, as a part of his theory of causation, an account of the chance that a cause gives its effect. He proposes that this chance can be analyzed as a certain kind of conditional, a closest world conditional with a chance consequent. I show that there are problems with Mellor’s account, but also attempt to show how these can be remedied. This analysis highlights important issues concerning the concept of components of single case objective chance. Mellor takes the chance he is concerned with to be objective single case chance measured by the probability calculus. It is not frequency nor credence, although it has important connections to both frequencies and credences.(1) According to Mellor facts which have chances can have more than one chance, for example, by having them at different times. Suppose we have two unstable atoms A and B in close proximity, each of which has a low chance of decaying, and suppose that atom A, if it decays, may bombard atom B with its product, thereby driving atom B into a state in which its chance of decaying is quite high- much higher than otherwise (see figure 1). Suppose this in fact happens, and let us consider the chance E that atom B will decay at a later time tE, when an observation will be made. The chance of E changes—increases, in fact—at tb, the time at which B is bombarded. Thus E has two chances, at different times. Mellor also holds that chances are contingent, but not on the fact that they are "chances of" (in our example, E), since they can exist when that fact does not. Atom B may not decay at t0, but it still had a chance of doing so prior to that time; so the chance existed but the state of affairs that it was about never did. Since chances are contingent, they must therefore be properties of other facts, facts without which they would not exist. The chance E that atom B will decay at time t0 is a property of facts about the structure and nature of that atom, together with facts concerning the nature and proximity of atom A. Mellor writes this chance as "chQ(E)" where Q is the fact or conjunctive fact of which the chance is a property. Applying this to the case of causation, the chance of the effect is a property not of the effect but of another fact, the cause C or the conjunction of C and S, where S is the circumstances in which C causes E.

Highway Robbery Essay

It was in the middle of the night, there was a carriage carrying gold and silver. It was on its way to Yorkshire. There was a guard with a rifle on the lookout for anything suspicious or threatening. There were people inside, chatting about the riches that were in their hands. The driver was driving the carriage; it had four horses pulling it. There was a co-driver as well, he was there in case anything happened to the driver. There was a man riding a horse, they were usually known as, â€Å"Highwaymen†, they stole from carriages and they were all aware that â€Å"Highwaymen† existed. Before the carriage got to the Highwayman’s location, the Highwayman cut down a tree with his axe, the tree obstructed the path of the road. Once the carriage got to the tree, it stopped, it was a very quiet place, no houses in sight, no people in sight, and it was in the pure country side. The guard got down from the carriage to take a look. He got very suspicious and had his rifle ready. The Highwayman with his horse hid behind a tree, silently. Then, suddenly the Highwayman leapt out of the woods and on to the road, he shouted â€Å"Give me all of your treasures, or die†. The Highwayman pointed his pistols at the guard. The guard slowly put down his rifle, and the richest man offered the riches to the Highwayman, then the slightly poorer people offered their treasures. Then the Highwayman, swiftly, rode off, in to the gloomy night. But then, the guard quickly, but silently picked up his rifle and started shooting at the Highwayman, but by then, the Highwayman had gone, and it was too late. By Matthew Williams

Learning Mandarin vs Cantonese

Mandarin Chinese is the official language of Mainland China and Taiwan, but it is not the only language spoken in the Chinese world. Besides the regional variations of Mandarin, there are several Chinese languages which are mutually unintelligible with Mandarin. Cantonese is one of these languages. Cantonese is spoken in Guangdong and Guangxi provinces, Hainan Island, Hong Kong, Macau, Singapore, Malaysia and many overseas Chinese communities. Worldwide, there are about 66 million Cantonese speakers. Compare this with Mandarin, which is spoken by about 1 billion people worldwide. Of all languages, Mandarin is the most widely-spoken. Is It Better To Learn Cantonese? With 66 million speakers, Cantonese cannot be considered an impractical language to learn. If your main objective, however, is to do business or travel in Mainland China, you would be better off learning Mandarin. But if you want to do business in Hong Kong or Guangdong Province, is it better to learn Cantonese? Consider these points taken from hanyu.com: Cantonese has a lack of good learning materials.Cantonese does not have a standard Romanization system (like Pinyin for Mandarin). Yale Romanization is most commonly used in textbooks, but it is unknown to native Cantonese speakers.Cantonese is heard less often in Overseas Chinese communities as new Mandarin-speaking immigrants arrive from Mainland China. And Cantonese speakers are increasingly learning Mandarin to find work in Mainland China. So it seems as though Mandarin is more practical than Cantonese. That’s not to say that learning Cantonese is a waste of time, and for some people it may be the better choice, but for most people wanting to speak Chinese, Mandarin is the way to go.